Carbon Trading Timeline

I've been hearing a lot of questions lately about what I expect the timeline for carbon trading to be in the United States. So, very quickly here is what it looks like.

June 30 2007: California Climate Registry must publish discrete early action greenhouse gas emission reduction measures that can be implemented prior to January 1, 2012.

3rd Quarter 2007: I believe APX will be hired by California Climate Registry to administer trading program

January 1 2008: By this date California must pass legislation to require monitoring and reporting of GHG emissions by "beginning with the sources or categories of sources that contribute the most to statewide emissions."- AB 32

2nd Quarter 2008: Agreements will be made between NEPOOL, PJM, and ERCOT to make RECs fungible with the developing carbon market based on local emission factors of RECs

January 1 2009: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative begins
January 1 2009- January 1 2010: Midwest Greenhouse Gas Initiative likely to begin

January 1 2011: California Climate Registry deadline for early action
January 1 2012: California Climate Registry allocates allowances and trading begins

I expect that California will continue to explore joining Kyoto and will indeed move up its allowance trading by at least 1 year. I expect the United States to ratify Kyoto in the year 2009 and will join for Phase III trading in 2013.